My predictions for the 2016 Iowa Caucuses:1
GOP
I have the GOP, in descending order, as Trump, Cruz, Paul, and Rubio. I am unsure about Rubio, but I think he becomes the Establishment default choice.
Rationale: Paul has a solid ground game, an effective PAC, and under-polled youth on his side. I think that will be tonight’s surprise story. Trump and Cruz will get the lion’s share, and Paul will be a distant – but noticeable – third.
Trump is a disorganized mess. Organization beats enthusiasm in Iowa. If you get both (see: Obama, 2008), you do really well. Trump enthusiasm will carry him over the line, but only just.
Democrats
I have the DEM picks as Clinton and Sanders. O’Malley is knocked out in the first round.
Rationale: If Sanders pulls it off, it’ll be super close. Clinton has been laying the groundwork for this since 2006ish. Her team have had a decade to develop a plan. The tipping point? The app the campaign developed for their precinct captains to throw support to O’Malley to keep Sanders from winning close precincts.