I’ve only owned jpmiller.net for a little over a decade (17. July 2001). It had been called “Justin’s Journal” for the longest time. Then most recently “My Other Site.” But today I realized the name had presented itself the other day on Facebook, where I wrote a short sketch from the impromptuly named “Bored Lawyer Theater.”
Iowa predictions, anyone?
My predictions for the 2016 Iowa Caucuses:1
GOP
I have the GOP, in descending order, as Trump, Cruz, Paul, and Rubio. I am unsure about Rubio, but I think he becomes the Establishment default choice.
Rationale: Paul has a solid ground game, an effective PAC, and under-polled youth on his side. I think that will be tonight’s surprise story. Trump and Cruz will get the lion’s share, and Paul will be a distant – but noticeable – third.
Trump is a disorganized mess. Organization beats enthusiasm in Iowa. If you get both (see: Obama, 2008), you do really well. Trump enthusiasm will carry him over the line, but only just.
Democrats
I have the DEM picks as Clinton and Sanders. O’Malley is knocked out in the first round.
Rationale: If Sanders pulls it off, it’ll be super close. Clinton has been laying the groundwork for this since 2006ish. Her team have had a decade to develop a plan. The tipping point? The app the campaign developed for their precinct captains to throw support to O’Malley to keep Sanders from winning close precincts.
The 2016 Silly Season Begins Today!
Here is how caucusing works: